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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Teaching Journal: Day 9—Hypothesis Testing: Part II

A review. We have sales data from two campaigns, A and B, data in which we choose (as a premise) to quantify our uncertainty with normal distributions. We assume the…
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Posted inStatistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…
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Posted inStatistics

People Who Believe In Heaven Commit More Crimes

This picture decreases rape rates Some people who really ought to know better---but don't---reported on the peer-reviewed paper "Divergent Effects of Beliefs in Heaven and Hell on National Crime Rates"…
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Posted inStatistics

Spanking Good For Future Education, Income: Researchers

                   Spanked as a child? A new peer-reviewed paper in the journal Pediatrics shows that girls are luckier than boys in avoiding spankings, that those who were spanked as children went…
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Posted inStatistics

Criticism of Jerrett et al. CARB PM2.5 And Mortality Report

A pdf of this criticism may be downloaded here. The Jerrett report can be found here. Background on this subject can be found here. Overall Author Michael Jerrett and nine…
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Posted inStatistics

Global Warming Increases Disastrous Music: A Scientific Paper

A scientific paper in a grand tradition (notice the scientific formatting and use of p-values): the custom is to read only the Abstract; only the brave and bored should venture…
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Posted inStatistics

The Implications Of Yesterday’s Global Warming Post

There was nothing in the world wrong with my scientific paper "Global Warming Increases Disastrous Music: A Scientific Paper." Nothing, that is, that isn't wrong with any paper which seeks,…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

British Judge Rules Against Bayes’s Theorem

A British judge has thrown a use of Bayes's rule out of his court. Not only that, his honor (Lordship?) ruled "against using similar statistical analysis in the courts in…
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  1. Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…

  3. Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025

    What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…

  4. Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…

  5. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

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