Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Confidence Intervals, Logic, Induction
Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…
Posted inStatistics
Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…
Posted inStatistics
Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part I
A standard epidemiological study goes like this: people who have been "exposed" to some thing, say, cell phone radiation, are examined to discover whether or not they have some malady.…
Posted inStatistics
Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part II
Be sure to read yesterday's post first. One of the screwy consequences of classical statistics is that my odd sample (mixing babies and the patients from the brain cancer ward)…
Posted inStatistics
Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability
This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…
Posted inBook review Statistics
The Great Global Warming Blunder by Roy W. Spencer
The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists by Roy W. Spencer This book was given to me for review by the publisher. Clouds…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Lesson Five or Six: Abnormality
Say! What happened to lessons three through four or five? Who knows. This morning, I'm dreadfully rushed, so just a sketch. I do not expect anybody to be convinced this…
Posted inStatistics
Lesson Zero: Lecturing, Churchill, and End of the World
Teaching as Performance The class is two weeks of solid statistics. Eight hours a day weeks; save the weekends. I don't know about other instructors, but my technique is to…
