Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
A Probability Non-Paradox
Before you is a box in which is a slip of paper on which is written either '0', '1', '2', or '3'. Given that premise, what is the probability of…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Problem Of Grue Isn’t; Or, A Gruesome Non-Paradox About Induction
Skepticism about induction happens only among academic philosophers, and only in print. Tell an induction skeptic to take a long walk off a short dock or hint that his health…
Posted inCulture Statistics
A New Possible Solution Of Fermi’s Paradox
What is the probability the following proposition is true? ``There are rational beings other than humans in the universe." Well, given the evidence of angels, who are rational non-human beings,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Statistics Really Is: Paradox Digression
Read Part I We're taking a small digression to answer a question put by Deborah Mayo in Part I, pointing to this article on her site. Mayo should be on…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t
Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…
Posted inPhilosophy
The Sorites Paradox Isn’t
Clearly, a guy with no hair on his head is bald. But so is a guy with just one---if and only if we define bald as "a man with little…
Posted inPhilosophy
The Tolerance Paradox
First, our official definition of a paradox: A puzzle concocted with premises we know are false but which lead to a conclusion we wish were true. Thus, because the conclusion…
Posted inStatistics
Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability
This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…