Query: now that I'm a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don't see how they'd help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…

Review! We're doing logistic and beta regression this time. These aren't far apart, because the observable for both lives between 0 and 1; for logistic it is 0 or 1;…

Review! You must at least review the first lessons---all class material is on one page for ease. I'll have more words about the mysticism of simulation, but I've said it…

Mandatory! Read Part I, Part II. I will ignore all comments already answered in Parts I & II. Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. If you downloaded before, download again. This…

Mandatory! Read Part I. I will ignore all comments already answered in Part I. Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. Update If you downloaded before, download again. This is version 0.2!…

Introduction Here's what we always want, but never get, using the old ways of doing statistics: The probability that some proposition Y is true given certain assumptions. Like this:     …

I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…