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Posted inStatistics

The Four Errors in Mann et al’s “The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth”

Michael E. Mann and four others published the peer-reviewed paper "The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth" in Nature: Scientific Reports (DOI: 10.1038/srep19831). I shall call this authors of this paper…
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Posted inStatistics

It’s World Statistics Day! Death To P-Values, Hypothesis Tests, And False Ascriptions Of Cause! #StatsDay15

Who said the UN doesn't do anything useful? Courtesy of that august body, it's World Statistics Day! Official statistics help decision makers develop informed policies that impact millions of people.…
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Posted inStatistics

Why Statistics Can’t Discover Cause, And Bad Priors

My mailbag is filling up. Today two questions from readers, both about statistics. Feel free to send yours in on any subject. Tomorrow is a doozy. Question 1 From reader…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Hear Briggs Speak Free on Why You’re Doing Statistics Wrong

Hear Briggs Speak Free! Where by "Free" I mean you pay my expenses. Here are the details. Hear the One And Only William M. Briggs The Statisticians to the Stars!…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Philosophy Of Uncertainty: An Introduction. Complete Preface. Update

Le livre, he is done! I yesterday sent a proposal to a philosophy editor at Cambridge. Not enough equations or pictures in it to pique the interest of the statistics…
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Posted inStatistics

Frequenstism Is Entirely Ad Hoc; And So Are Priors. Use The Third Way Instead

https://twitter.com/learnfromerror/status/638841417461276672 Short note today, because today, and most days for the next couple of weeks, are book days. I am nearly finished with the damned thing. I'm now handling drudgery…
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Posted inStatistics

The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill. New Paper

New paper up at Arxiv, which is a sort of précis to some key chapters in my book most relevant to probability and statistical modeling. Abstract: There is a third…
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Posted inStatistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…
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  1. Eric Kay Sci Fi on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 24, 2026

    Thanks for the write-up. Thinking about things in the way of a probability distribution has always helped me, but also…

  2. Philip Rogan on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 24, 2026

    Brian, good comment. A coincidence is only a coincidence to the person to which the coincidence occurred.

  3. John Pate on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 23, 2026

    Now do Synchronicity.

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 23, 2026

    If a 7/11 sale occurrs in a forest, and nobody is around to document it, does it make a sound?…

  5. Willis Eschenbach on Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap HanekampJuly 23, 2026

    Thanks as always, Matt. I'd be interested in your (or anyone's) comments on my post below about the Precautionary Principle.…

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