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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Phil Jones and the Lack of Warming; Or, Die, Statistical Significance, Die

According to the stunning New York Times headline, which quoted climatologist Phil Jones, there has been no "statistically significant" global warming in the past 15 years. Just kidding! The Times…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I

Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part V, The real Grand Finale

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Much of what we discussed---but not all---is in this picture. Right click and open it in…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Homogenization of temperature series: Part II

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Aside: counterfactuals A counterfactual is statement saying what would be the case if its conditional were…
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Posted inStatistics

The CRU “climategate” proxy code: a primer

I'm just getting into the CRU code: it's a lot of material and everything I say here about it is preliminary. Some of you will know what I'm going to…
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Posted inPhilosophy

The strange insignificance of statistical significance

Who is more likely to support the death penalty: college undergraduates from a "nationally-ranked Midwestern university with an enrollment of slightly more than 20,000" majoring in social work, or those…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The only two reasons for statistics

This short post is for reference. I will point back to it from time to time. Reason 1: to say something about the past Examples: counting seasonal numbers of wins…
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