Today's post is over at Legal Insurrection. The headline, helpfully supplied by William Jacobson, is "Politico poll showing 'plurality support' for gay marriage also shows majority opposition." Headline writing is…

There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…

To summarize what we know, but only in brief and leaving out many smaller scandals: The White House lied about the cause of Benghazi. They knowingly, willingly, and falsely claimed…

As will come as absolutely no surprise to regular readers, but will be a traumatic revelation to the public at large, it has finally been acknowledged in the peer-reviewed literature…

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…