An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…

As requested by Richard Drake and J Ferguson, who began a conversation on a similar topic last week, this new post asks what is the best "opinion poll-ready definition of…

"It is well established that being beautiful confers many advantages on a person." This is the opening sentence of a break-through paper by two Swedes and a Finn. From that…

First, and most strongly, probability need not have anything to do with data. For example, we can compute a value for the probability that "Matt wears a hat" given the…