Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Regression Really Is: Part II
Read Part I Let's continue our example. Suppose our regression shows that the probability of a Hate score greater than 5 is 60% for men and 80% for women---for people…
Posted inBook review Culture Statistics
Party’s Over, Baby: The Twilight of Abundance Reviewed
The Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short by David Archibald, visiting Fellow Institute of World Politics. I am a curmudgeon, which…
Posted inCulture Philosophy
Belgian “Doctors” To Kill Kids They Think They Can’t Cure
Belgium has just made it legal for "doctors" to kill children. Not those who haven't yet escaped the womb---those kids have been fair game for any quack with a sharp…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
How’d We Do On Our 2013 Predictions?
We have proved yet again that the future is that undiscovered country with our predictions for 2013. See the original guesses here. Don't make new predictions here. Tomorrow I'll start…
Posted inFun Statistics
My Complete And Utter Lack Of Business Sense
I can derive the Omega equation, can tell you why clouds float, and I know what number comes after א0, but I couldn't sell fire to an Eskimo. Not for…
Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
Obamacare Predictions: How’d We Do So Far?
One of life's real pleasures, though it lessens us to admit it, is when we get to say I told you so. Nobody in the world, except those who believe…
Posted inPhilosophy
All Forecasts, Predictions, & Prophecies Are Contingent
Yesterday I made the point that Jim Hansen's latest threat of doom was a conditional one. I also said that there was nothing wrong with this. And there isn't. Nothing…
Posted inStatistics
Over-Optimism In Physician Prognoses
Poor Michael Boren lay dead at one of the ugliest places in New York City, the on-ramp to the Queensboro Bridge. Heart attack. He was only 51. He made it…
