Posted inCulture Statistics
Give Up Carbon For Lent?
Ought to be easy to give up carbon for Lent, as the Global Catholic Climate Movement suggests1. Step one: don't exhale and don't eat---your breath and food are chock full…
Posted inStatistics
Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature
You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
Posted inStatistics
Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Infinite Surprise And Impossible Events
It's a lazy Saturday, so some musings today on entropy and information and probability. It's about time we started tying these things together. Things like the following are heard: "Given…
Posted inStatistics
Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell
I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…
Posted inBook review Statistics
The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed
People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
Posted inStatistics
Can We Predict The Unpredictable?
The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today's post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is…
Posted inStatistics
Predicting Doom—Guest Post by Thomas Galli
I am not a statistics wizard; an engineer, I value the predictive power of statistics. Indeed, if one can precisely control variables in the design of an experiment, statistics-based prediction…