Posted inStatistics
Don’t Say “Natural Variability”
Word that the climate of doom we were promised (repeatedly) has not obtained has begun leaking out. Climatologists have known this for quite some time, but now even environmental activists…
Posted inStatistics
Don’t Say “Hiatus.”
Don't say "pause", either. Update: Nor (see this post) "natural variability". What a mistake it is to use these words! There is no possible meaning of them which is sensible…
Posted inStatistics
The IPCC’s And McKitrick’s “Hiatus” Time Series Models
Several readers asked me to look at Ross McKitrick's paper "HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series", which is receiving the usual…
Posted inStatistics
We Know The Climate Is Warming Because It Isn’t
What do you call the mental process which allows a man to say "What's firmly established is that the climate is warming" while also holding that "There's been a burst…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability
Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…
Posted inFun
Winners Announced In The Rename “Global Warming” Contest!
On 17 July we started the Rename "Global Warming" Contest. This produced 66 entries, which is a record for contests here. Thanks to everybody who participated. I think we've done…
Posted inStatistics
On The Kaya Identity
A reader asked about my take on the Kaya wars that are flaming at Anthony Watts's place. Here is the form of the Kaya Identity, which is to say, the…
Posted inFun
Rename “Global Warming” Contest
Andrew Jackson (â€@yodacomplex) reminded me of the screwy history of the thing that was Global Warming. The phrase has undergone many revisions, examples of which are: Climate Change, Climate Cataclysm,…