Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 19

Twenty Tips For Interpreting Scientific Claims

Title of today's post is taken from article of the same name in Nature by William Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter, Mark Burgman. Several readers asked me to comment. I'll assume you've…

Fun Statistics

My Complete And Utter Lack Of Business Sense

I can derive the Omega equation, can tell you why clouds float, and I know what number comes after א0, but I couldn't sell fire to an Eskimo. Not for…

Statistics

On The Intersection Of Scientist And Politicians—Guest Post by An Engineer

"An Engineer" is a gentleman who has practiced Civil, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering for more than 40 years. He has been granted patents for a number of practical inventions, and…

Statistics

Econometric Drinking Games, WSJ Edition: Update

Jim Fedako sent in this Wall Street Journal column, written by one Dan Ariely, a "Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics." A lady wrote Ariely asking for economic party games.…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

A Common Fallacy In Global Warming Arguments

Our post today is provided by Terry Oldberg, M.S.E., M.S.E.E., P.E. Engineer-Scientist, Citizen of the U.S. That's a lot of letters, Terry! Oldberg joined our Spot the Fallacy Contest, which…

Statistics

Over-Optimism In Physician Prognoses

Poor Michael Boren lay dead at one of the ugliest places in New York City, the on-ramp to the Queensboro Bridge. Heart attack. He was only 51. He made it…

Culture Philosophy

Proposed Scottish Law To Allow 16-Year-Olds To Have “Doctors” Kill Them

How many of you have kids? Remember when they were around the sixteen-year mark? Somewhat volatile emotionally, would you not agree? Particularly females of the species. Laughter today, bitter tears…

John Pate on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
We know we don't understand consciousness let alone intelligence. IQ testing gets a bad rep though, it's a proxy for…
Cary D Cotterman on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
I've observed seemingly vast differences in intelligence between singleton siblings raised in the same home (the gap from my wife…
NLR on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
I appreciate the researchers putting a table with the specific people and their scores. The 1937 book which the first…
hudbwu on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 12, 2025
I'll just point out that there is nothing in the Catholic doctrine that prohibits cannibalism. I was quite surprised when…
Johnno on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 11, 2025
The cemeteries??? The hospitals themselves will weigh you and cut you up and auction you off just like the first…