Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 20

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

A Common Fallacy In Global Warming Arguments

Our post today is provided by Terry Oldberg, M.S.E., M.S.E.E., P.E. Engineer-Scientist, Citizen of the U.S. That's a lot of letters, Terry! Oldberg joined our Spot the Fallacy Contest, which…

Statistics

Over-Optimism In Physician Prognoses

Poor Michael Boren lay dead at one of the ugliest places in New York City, the on-ramp to the Queensboro Bridge. Heart attack. He was only 51. He made it…

Culture Philosophy

Proposed Scottish Law To Allow 16-Year-Olds To Have “Doctors” Kill Them

How many of you have kids? Remember when they were around the sixteen-year mark? Somewhat volatile emotionally, would you not agree? Particularly females of the species. Laughter today, bitter tears…

Culture Philosophy

Academics Call For The Killing Of Babies In “After-Birth” Abortions

Update This is back in the news. This (lightly edited) post originally appeared 28 February 2012. Academic philosophers Alberto Giubilini and Francesca Minerva---shockingly working in Australia1, a land where commonsense…

Statistics

A Citizen’s Guide to Global Warming Evidence

Was it only me? I thought Chicken Little dead. After all, when was the last time we heard competent authority shouting "Only the government can stop the sky from falling!"?…

Statistics

Paul “Population Bomb” Ehrlich Asks, “Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?” Yes, Paul. Yes It Can

Paul Ehrlich in 1968 predicted that a devastating human Population Bomb would immanently wreak untold havoc upon the world. He was later derided, ridiculed, blasted, razzed, heckled, savaged, tweaked, tormented,…

Philosophy Statistics

How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That

Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…

Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…
Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…
JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026
The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…
JH on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI can be ‘gullible’ because it takes all the information fed into its optimization or backpropagation system. In many tasks,…