Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 21

Scientific Truths Are Not Better Truths Than Just-Plain Truths

One of the key fallacies of scientism, in the sense of being the most destructive to common sense and personal wellbeing, is to suppose that any theory put forth in…

Statistics

Boy Sues Government To Stop Global Warming. James Hansen Comes Out Of Hiding

I had thought the furor was over, that those who held ultramontane views about climatologists like James "Lock me up!" Hansen (see below the fold) had given up and gone…

Culture Philosophy

Tennessee Votes To Teach Uncertainty In Science. Result?

What do you think of this? Tennessee has enacted a law (HB 0368-SB 0893) which states (emphasis mine): This bill prohibits the state board of education and any public elementary…

Philosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part IV

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We have before us X1 to X156. We started by assuming that something, called T, caused these data to take the values it did.…

Culture Fun Statistics

Should Scientists Be Held Legally Responsible for Their Results?

That title is lifted from Popular Science's brief article. The idea is that scientists---as philosopher Christopher Essex reminded me, just like doctors and accountants and businessmen and engineers and everybody…

Philosophy Statistics

All Of Statistics: Part III

(B) New data It might surprise you, but in classical (both frequentist and Bayesian) practice, if we expect to see new X, the procedure is almost always no different than…

Statistics

Hurricane Predictors Admit They Can’t Predict Hurricanes

My heart soared like a hawk1 after learning that Messieurs Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have admitted in print the hardest thing scientists can ever confess. That they were wrong.…

Culture Statistics

Something To Be Thankful For: Climategate 2.0

Thanks to Mr, or Mrs, Anonymous, that generous individual who has graced us with a new batch of emails from the world's top climate scientists. These new missives are guaranteed…

Cary D Cotterman on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
I've observed seemingly vast differences in intelligence between singleton siblings raised in the same home (the gap from my wife…
NLR on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
I appreciate the researchers putting a table with the specific people and their scores. The 1937 book which the first…
hudbwu on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 12, 2025
I'll just point out that there is nothing in the Catholic doctrine that prohibits cannibalism. I was quite surprised when…
Johnno on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 11, 2025
The cemeteries??? The hospitals themselves will weigh you and cut you up and auction you off just like the first…
John Pate on Class 74: Contra Effect SizesDecember 11, 2025
The big sticking point for me is that everyone assumes they are sampling from the Normal Distribution for no reason…