Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
Posted inStatistics
There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection
This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…
Posted inStatistics
On Nate Silver’s Republicans-Take-The-Senate Prediction
Yet the first bringer of unwelcome news Hath but a losing office, and his tongue Sounds ever after as a sullen bell, Remember'd tolling a departing friend. ---Henry IV, part…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
How’d We Do On Our 2013 Predictions?
We have proved yet again that the future is that undiscovered country with our predictions for 2013. See the original guesses here. Don't make new predictions here. Tomorrow I'll start…
Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
Obamacare Predictions: How’d We Do So Far?
One of life's real pleasures, though it lessens us to admit it, is when we get to say I told you so. Nobody in the world, except those who believe…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
How’d Our 2012 Predictions Fare?
We didn't have a such a bad year making picks---here's the list. Make predictions for 2013 here. Yours truly picked Mitt Romney as president. A wishcast not a forecast! A…
Posted inFun Statistics
Predictions 2013—Register Yours Today!
Time for our annual guessing game about what's to come for 2013. The predictions we made for 2012 will be posted and analyzed tomorrow. We have one week to enter…
Posted inStatistics
The Final Polls & Predictions: What’s The Difference Between Polls And Models?
There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…