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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Frequentists Are Closet Bayesians: Confidence Interval Edition

Actually, all frequentists and Bayesians are logical probabilists, but if I put that in the title, few would believe it. A man might call himself an Anti-Gravitational Theorist, a science…
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Posted inStatistics

Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example

Temperature causes Here is an atmospheric monthly average temperature series: T = (61, 69, 69, 70, 72, 65, 63) (all F). What caused the temperature to take the value T1…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy

True Reason: Confronting the Irrationality of the New Atheism Reviewed

Answer me honestly. How rational is it to believe any of the following: Science can explain everything, even itself; The reason anything exists is because of the laws of gravity,…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

A New Possible Solution Of Fermi’s Paradox

What is the probability the following proposition is true? ``There are rational beings other than humans in the universe." Well, given the evidence of angels, who are rational non-human beings,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Somebody-Might-Get-Hurt! Fallacy

Word is our beneficent government, which loves us and would not see us fall into harm, is working on a design for a system of chains to anchor both citizens…
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Posted inStatistics

On Nate Silver’s Republicans-Take-The-Senate Prediction

Yet the first bringer of unwelcome news Hath but a losing office, and his tongue Sounds ever after as a sullen bell, Remember'd tolling a departing friend. ---Henry IV, part…
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Posted inStatistics

Evidence Does Not Support Low Consumption Of Total Saturated Fats

The full version of the headline is this: Current evidence does not clearly support cardiovascular guidelines that encourage high consumption of polyunsaturated fatty acids and low consumption of total saturated…
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Posted inStatistics

Pick Your Lotto Numbers With a Greater Chance to Win? Paper From Brazil

The Blaze ran a story with headline "Mathematician Thinks There's a Way to Pick Your Lotto Numbers With a Greater Chance to Win". Turns out Renato Gianella thinks he's discovered…
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  1. Cary Cotterman on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026

    More than seventy years of experience with dog ownership has made the fact clear to me that dogs squat pointing…

  2. Uncle Mike on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026

    The afterstory: three of the authors are now university presidents, and one is head of NSA.

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    for sure you have identified a scienterrific study full of dog poop

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    Well, a lot of current research product orients toward the left.

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    Perhaps the dogs prefer not to stare into the morning and evening sun? How does one measure the "calmness" of…

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