Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II
Read Part I first. We are in the peek first game here. The distribution of N When X is odd, and all X are discrete, we know we should always…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I
Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…
Posted inStatistics
St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell
David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…
Posted inStatistics
How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics
See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…
Posted inFun Statistics
The Predictive Skills of Octopii: Paul’s World Cup Prognostications
In Detroit, for that glorious game of soccer-on-ice-with-sticks, we---I still say "we"; you can never separate yourself from your birthplace---know what to do with octopuses, octopii as were: We toss…
Posted inStatistics
Lady Wins Fourth Lottery: What Are the Odds?
I'm in the wild blue yonder today; so here is a distraction. Thanks to reader Jade for suggesting the topic. Nobody can scratch better than Las Vegas resident Joan Ginther,…
Posted inStatistics
Consensus Members Agree To Agree: Breaking Story
The agreement amongst climatologists who agree that mankind will cause devastating climate change is popularly known as "The Consensus." Those who agree with the consensus are part of the consensus;…
Posted inFun Statistics
World Cup Statistics and Predictions for the Final
A prediction (made on Monday, 28 June) verified: Although---and this has nothing to do with the issue at hand---Argentina's goaltender Sergio Romero stinks, and that's putting it nicely. Every shot…