Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
David Stove Exposes Karl Popper’s Wee P!
We have discussed before (and in detail here) how Fisher, inventor of the wee P of which scientists boast ("Look how small my P is!" shouted the excited scientist), was…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Why Dembski’s Design Inference (Of Causation) Goes Wrong
Probability does not exist; therefore, nothing has a probability, so nothing can be caused by probability, though the uncertainty of statements can be had conditional on assumptions, and this probability…
Posted inStatistics
Why You Don’t Have To Worry About Climate Change: Multiplication Of Uncertainties
I once did a talk on this subject at Spain's Royal Institute of Science during the first global warming panic, but I did a lousy job. Now, at the time…
Posted inStatistics
More On Why Falsifiability Is Not Interesting
Take a look-see at this science pic: This is the output from some model, the nature of which is not especially interesting, and the accompanying observations. In other words, predictions…
Posted inStatistics
Global Warming To Create Cold Which Will Cause Mass Extinctions: Experts’ Model
Reporter Leslie Stahl once had herself filmed walking by a power plant's smokestack. She said, "There could be anything coming out of there." Unless "we" acted. She asked her ardent…
Posted inStatistics
There Are No Such Things As 100-Year Floods: Global Warming Isn’t Making Floods Worse
Reader Chuck Lampert writes: Hi Briggs! I got into a kerfluffle with some Climate Apocalypse true believers who said the frequency of 1/50, 1/100, 1/500, and 1/1000 yr floods is…
Posted inStatistics
The Difference In Means & Why P-Values Should Not Be Used — Excerpt From The Lake Michigan Dialogues
"Say, Briggs. Since you're Statistician to the Stars!, explain to me how I can tell if two means are different in a simple way that even I can understand." You…
Posted inStatistics
How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty
It's easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I'll show you how. I'll give you the procedure first, then work through…