Search Results for “random chance” – Page 23

Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability

This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…

Statistics

Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know

This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…

Philosophy Statistics

Statistics as Beauty; Global Warming Miscellany; SATs Biased?; More

Statistics is Beautiful? From reader Yeah, Yeah comes a link to a Wired article which assures us we should "Learn the Language of Data." It's not a pretty language, but…

Philosophy Statistics

Lesson Two Redux: More Mysticism

Is it written into sport announcers' contract that they shall speak in nothing but cliché? Since there is always great confusion about why premises about "fairness" or "randomness" are not…

Philosophy Statistics

Confidence Intervals, Logic, Induction

Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…

Statistics

Phil Jones and the Lack of Warming; Or, Die, Statistical Significance, Die

According to the stunning New York Times headline, which quoted climatologist Phil Jones, there has been no "statistically significant" global warming in the past 15 years. Just kidding! The Times…

Statistics

Climate Skeptic Conspiracy Strikes!

I have never been part of a conspiracy before---there was never the opportunity---so you can imagine how excited I am about finally joining one. It's true that, in 1978, I,…

Brian (bulaoren) on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 22, 2026
Enough time has passed, since this post went up, for me to feel no need to stick to the topic.…
David on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026
I would also like to point out that slaves often had *better* medical care than their working-class white counterparts, being…
Cary Cotterman on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026
Perhaps slave traders found low-intelligence blacks easier to capture, resulting in an intellectually challenged population of blacks in the U.S.…
Brian (bulaoren) on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026
Where do homicide rates fit in?
McChuck on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 20, 2026
I am morally certain that murdering innocent children for fun and profit is evil. There. That was easy.