Classic Posts
Featured Articles Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2 The Great Global Warming—A.K.A.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept
https://twitter.com/Bigdatanalysis/status/573739862924353536 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by "springing forward", we continue our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles next week. If you can't read the tweet above, it says…
Posted inStatistics
Der Spiegel Asks About Global-Warming-Causes-Syrian-Civil-War Paper
That peer-reviewed Colin Kelley et al. paper "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought", which the traddy media is portraying like Wired did---e.g. How…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III
Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
Posted inStatistics
Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty
A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…
Posted inStatistics
Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature
You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
Posted inStatistics
Men Who Post ‘Selfies’ Are Psychopathic, Narcissistic. Science Says So!
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Far be it for Yours Truly to disagree with a peer-reviewed study. It must…