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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Siena Presidential Scholar President Rankings: Are They Biased?

The Siena Research Institute asked 238 presidential scholars to rank each president from 1 (best) to worst (43) in nineteen different categories, plus one overall ranking. A complete list of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Do You Really Want: Part II

Class is, thank God, rapidly coming to an end. I am sure we are all grateful. Here's an addendum to yesterday; but only briefly explained. Because of the crush of…
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Posted inStatistics

What Do You Really Want? Modern Statistics. Lesson n+2

Only a couple of days left, everybody. Then back to more interesting subjects. Incidentally: when is the best time to contact a statistician? Before you begin to collect data. You…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

The Ease of Cheating With Statistics

Thanks to readers Ari Schwartz and Tom Pollard for suggesting this article. Take any two sets of numbers, where the only restriction is that a reasonable chunk inside each set…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part II

Read Part I : Download the Quirk’s article. To understand why ordinary regression assumptions are bad, we need to look at some (new data) scenarios. Suppose that Bob had a…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I

Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
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Posted inStatistics

How To Use A Poll To Predict Election Winners

The Scott Brown, Martha Coakley race is over. The results are not surprising nor undesirable. This is because anybody who dares call another---close your eyes if you cannot stand foul…
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  1. Briggs on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026

    Gareth, And thanks for the comment.

  2. gareth on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026

    You said "and thanks for listening". To which my reply is "and thanks for doing" (many fold) I'm only half…

  3. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  4. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  5. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

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