Every probability and statistics class I've ever heard of starts with math applied to observations---with all notions of what probability is and what cause means brushed aside. By the time…

I remind you, yet again, that all models only say what they are told to say. A bland truism. Unless you forget it. Let's now look at two "climate change"…

This is on the philosophy (not mechanics) of the predictive limitations of so-called artificial intelligence models. AI is no different than other models in principle, being only statements which connect…

Here my friends is the whole of probability and uncertainty, in highlight form. A quick overview of where we have been, what we're doing, and where we're going. All can…

I wrote the post below before learning the company that wanted the DNR’s land backed out (yesterday); however, the DNR has similar plans for other plots of land (links and…

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/RgldTd03?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…

In my free and it-don't-cost-nuthin' class notes Breaking the Law of Averages (pdf), I have a homework question which goes something like this: Explain why, no matter the goodness of…

Hallucinogenics are back, baby. Maybe you know them by their cool name psychedelics. They're not back in the wild and weird and often destructive 60s way, but in the more…