Search Results for “bayes bayesian”

How Not To Think Like A Bayesian Rationalist

Lisping Rationalists When I read people like Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander it becomes clear to me how the French could have built a Temple of Reason during The Terror.…

Philosophy

Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty

This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Philosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…

Philosophy Statistics

Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…

Philosophy

Against Moldbug’s Reservationist Epistemology: Reason Alone Is Not Reasonable

For most, Mencius Moldbug will need no introduction; for those who do not know him, this review of his work is succinct (which Moldbug never was) and fair. We'll not…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayesian Statistics Isn’t What You Think

Back to our Edge series. Sean Carroll says Bayes's Theorem should be better known. He outlines the theorem in the familiar updating-prior-belief formula. But, as this modified classic article shows,…

Philosophy Statistics

The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update

Quoting from a post on vampires, "In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called 'Bayesian priors' or just 'priors'), and then you 'update' them as you receive new…

C-Marie on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
Well, not sure that I understand all of this, but is the brotherhood of priests referring to Roman Catholic priests…
Cary Cotterman on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
John Galt
Brian (bulaoren) on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
Has anyone else interacted with our medical system lately? I wonder what changed...
Hun on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
The only way to do this reliably is around a religion or occult faith. No religion in its current form…
Hagfish Bagpipe on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
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