I once had a guy walk out on me at a scientific conference, full of my peers. He and I were disagreeing about the nature of probability. The exact words…

What is the chance that "Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election"? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an…

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

I was reading a draft of a book our own Fr John Rickert's is working on. Visual Logic: Seeing Classical and Modern Logic: An Introduction, a neat little handbook showing…

From Mars, John Carter reports in a wonderful essay discussing the Regime's attempts at manipulation says this: People don’t like being gaslit. The psychological techniques used by salesmen, con men,…