Search Results for “bayes bayesian”

Bayesian Yacht Sinks; Connected Man Run Over By Car: A Working Coincidence

So a 184-foot yacht named Bayesian sank while anchored in a freak windstorm off Sicily. Its billionaire owner now sleeps with the fishes. The name of the boat naturally brings…

Philosophy Statistics

How Not To Think Like A Bayesian Rationalist

Lisping Rationalists When I read people like Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander it becomes clear to me how the French could have built a Temple of Reason during The Terror.…

Statistics

Why Bayes Is Not The Fix We Need: A Critique of Bayesian Inference and its Application

I've pointed out many times some of the weaknesses of traditional statistical practices, and how the routine use of "hypothesis testing" leads to an ever-growing mountain of Broken Science. Some…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Philosophy Statistics

Solved: The Best Bayesian Prior To Use In Every Situation

Kevin Gray is back with another question, this time about priors. His last led to the post "Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed." (The answer was…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Statistics

Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?

Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email.…

Statistics

Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks

I stole today's title from David Papineau's essay "Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science", which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early…

NLR on On Not ReadingMarch 15, 2026
quote from Idonotreadcomments: "everything men create is derivative of what came before us. There are no stories that have not…
Rudolph Harrier on On Not ReadingMarch 14, 2026
Idonotreadcomments: you are making the wrong observation from bookstores. Certainly that sort of smut is plentiful in bookstores, and this…
Nym Coy on On Not ReadingMarch 13, 2026
Might I interest you in a book? It is called Mumbai Singularity, and it is a mythic cyberpunk detective thriller…
Uncle Mike on Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)March 12, 2026
The probability of significant "climate change" in equatorial Africa is very small because most climate change occurs at the poles.…
Idonotreadcomments on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026
First of all, you only need to visit a big chain bookstore to know that the fiction market is driven…