I was having an argument with a friend who was on his way to a conference to point out the shortcomings and over-confidence of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). With EBM, you can’t […]
The Disparagement Of Epidemiology
Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails
Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug’s latest. Rather, Alexander’s (and Moldbug’s? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is. The rationality […]
Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]
The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)
Video Link The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and instead a […]
Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. “P-values have some good uses.” No, they don’t. I used every as in every. “P-values are fine […]
Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God. I’m against […]
Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Bayes […]
Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]
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