Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug’s latest. Rather, Alexander’s (and Moldbug’s? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is. The rationality […]
This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate his entry […]
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]
RELEVANT ARTICLES New Paper! Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis (link) New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof (link) New Paper! The Replacement For Hypothesis Testing (link) Randomization […]
Video Link The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and instead a […]
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. “P-values have some good uses.” No, they don’t. I used every as in every. “P-values are fine […]
Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God. I’m against […]
I stole today’s title from David Papineau’s essay “Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science“, which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early to mid […]
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