Search Results for “"time series"”

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Statistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…

Statistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Statistics

On The Limitations of AI: Predictions

This is on the philosophy (not mechanics) of the predictive limitations of so-called artificial intelligence models. AI is no different than other models in principle, being only statements which connect…

Statistics

Warming in Terms of Human and Natural Factors

Today's title is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper "The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data",…

Statistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…

Class Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…

Statistics

How Do Scientists & Soothsayers Know When They’re Right? Report on Fourth Broken Science Initiative Event

We had the fourth Broken Science Initiative event this past Saturday at the Castro Ranch in Aromas, California. Which is apparently where CrossFit got its start. Standing room only. Terrific…

Hagfish Bagpipe on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
The earth is a spinning ball orbiting the sun in a limitless vacuum. Maybe. But maybe not. After seeing how…
hudbwu on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 15, 2025
> you have posited that nothing has become a cause, and it is impossible the absence of anything can become…
Phil R on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
My earlier post was longish and probably wasn't that clear. I think two of the problems are a lack of…
Polybius on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
Now that I have thought more about this I think one of our biggest problems in all fields from climate…
C. P. Benischek on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
Evolution. As Stephen Jay Gould once sort of said, the lack of a single example in the fossil record of…