Search Results for “bayes bayesian”

Bayesian Yacht Sinks; Connected Man Run Over By Car: A Working Coincidence

So a 184-foot yacht named Bayesian sank while anchored in a freak windstorm off Sicily. Its billionaire owner now sleeps with the fishes. The name of the boat naturally brings…

Philosophy Statistics

How Not To Think Like A Bayesian Rationalist

Lisping Rationalists When I read people like Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander it becomes clear to me how the French could have built a Temple of Reason during The Terror.…

Statistics

Why Bayes Is Not The Fix We Need: A Critique of Bayesian Inference and its Application

I've pointed out many times some of the weaknesses of traditional statistical practices, and how the routine use of "hypothesis testing" leads to an ever-growing mountain of Broken Science. Some…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Philosophy Statistics

Solved: The Best Bayesian Prior To Use In Every Situation

Kevin Gray is back with another question, this time about priors. His last led to the post "Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed." (The answer was…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Statistics

Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?

Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email.…

Statistics

Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks

I stole today's title from David Papineau's essay "Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science", which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early…

Briggs on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 5, 2025
John, Now that's very interesting. I would have loved to have heard that talk.
John Pate on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 5, 2025
This is why I laughed at the nonsense about Casinos using probability. All they care about is the House wins…
Brian (bulaoren) on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 4, 2025
So, after a full day, nobody has commented. Well, I tried to wade through it all but, as William Safire…
How Brain Structure Shapes Political Bias: The Neuroscience Behind Right-Wing Authoritarianism - Audette-O-Blog on Conservatives Produced By “Low Effort” Thinking: StudyDecember 3, 2025
[…] Conservatives Produced By “Low Effort” Thinking: Study – Why Boozy Barflies and Stressed Slackers Might Just Be the Truest…
Richard S. on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherDecember 3, 2025
I retrieved and read or skimmed Chanda's piece. Her article scarcely referenced actual counts and statistics, but some of the…