Words and phrases can drift over time, as you all know, sometimes coming to mean even the opposite of their original definition. Like awful, meaning first something worthy of awe,…

Thanks to AS! I don't have your email, so I hope you see this. The epidemiologist fallacy occurs when a scientist announces, directly or implicitly, that X Causes Y, but…

There are a lot of new readers, and many may not yet have heard of the epidemiologist fallacy. Few tools have been as productive at generating The Science. You know…

I made this picture for my talk at the first ever public Broken Science event (videos coming soon): Everybody has heard the saying "correlation doesn't imply causation." Taken loosely, it…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…

The question is not mine. It belongs to Philip Stark, who asked it of Deborah Mayo at a Berkeley lecture. Stark plainly asked five good questions: When and how did…

Here my friends is the whole of probability and uncertainty, in highlight form. A quick overview of where we have been, what we're doing, and where we're going. All can…