Contributor William Raynor sets us a task: Hi Matt, …I’d still like to see if you can write a column about what an empirical p-value really is without mentioning the word probability. […]
What Are P-Values?
Spurious Correlations Proves Hypothesis Testing Should Be Abandoned
This week traditionally is a slow week on the blog, so let me have a go at explaining something I’ve explained a few hundred times before, a thing which has not yet […]
All Those Warnings About Models Are True: Researchers Given Same Data Come To Huge Number Of Conflicting Findings
Seventy-some researcher groups were given identical data, and asked to investigate an identical question. The groups did not communicate. Details are in the paper “Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and […]
David Stove Exposes Karl Popper’s Wee P!
We have discussed before (and in detail here) how Fisher, inventor of the wee P of which scientists boast (“Look how small my P is!” shouted the excited scientist), was deeply influenced […]
Why Dembski’s Design Inference (Of Causation) Goes Wrong
Probability does not exist; therefore, nothing has a probability, so nothing can be caused by probability, though the uncertainty of statements can be had conditional on assumptions, and this probability changes when […]
Reader Question: Probability is not real in the sense that real life things are real
Anon writes: Mr. Briggs, I am trying to understand the statement in the title. It [probability] is a measure of uncertainty. It is a measure of what we know or do not […]
More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any—I said any—dataset x. And all it takes is one—I said one—parameter! . […]
Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty
This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate his entry […]
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