Most forget their parameterized models are ad hoc, and so fret about how to put uncertainty on the parameters. Hence the cheerful reception of De Finetti's representation theory. WARNING for…

The first part of this article also appears at the Broken Science Initiative. Go there to read it, too, and many other good ones by other authors. We already saw…

The question is not mine. It belongs to Philip Stark, who asked it of Deborah Mayo at a Berkeley lecture. Stark plainly asked five good questions: When and how did…

I've pointed out many times some of the weaknesses of traditional statistical practices, and how the routine use of "hypothesis testing" leads to an ever-growing mountain of Broken Science. Some…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

There is this idea in statistics called the "bootstrap." The idea is not crazy, but it's not quite right either. Works like this: data comes in, and usually some parameterized…

Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…

So these researchers said the worse infection of covid you had the more you now act like our dear President: In a multiple regression analysis, participants who had recovered from…