Some two and a half years ago I posted this article: “An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument“. The title is unfortunate; or, rather, the subtitle is. It should have […]
The Only Argument Against P-Values You Will Ever Need
Solved: The Best Bayesian Prior To Use In Every Situation
Kevin Gray is back with another question, this time about priors. His last led to the post “Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed.” (The answer was yes and […]
How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty
It’s easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I’ll show you how. I’ll give you the procedure first, then work through an example […]
Researchers Claim “Climate Change” Causes Currency Vulnerability: An Instance Of Forgotten Uncertainties
Listen to the podcast at YouTube, Bitchute, or Gab. We know all about models by now, do we not, dear readers? A model, also known as a theory, can be made about […]
New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their parametric posterior […]
More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any—I said any—dataset x. And all it takes is one—I said one—parameter! . […]
Reader Experiences With Bad Medical & Finance Models
Anons emails about experience with bad modeling. These read very like posts you see here daily. Lightly edited to remove personal information, with links by me. The post about the Lancet pollution […]
The Reason Why Much Science Is Broken: Every Use Of P-Values Is A Logical Fallacy
I made this picture for my talk at the first ever public Broken Science event (videos coming soon): Everybody has heard the saying “correlation doesn’t imply causation.” Taken loosely, it seems wrong, […]
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