Posted inStatistics
Class 55: Models Vs Reality
This week starts Part II of the Class: scientific modeling, in all its glories and, alas, failures. Science is model happy, and judges too often the goodess of models by…
Posted inStatistics
How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis
Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any---I said any---dataset x. And all it takes is one---I said…
Posted inClass Statistics
Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!
The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…
FREE CLASS
UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Jayne's Book (first part). Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2:…
Posted inClass Statistics
The Predictive Way Is The Only Way In Statistics: Sick Cow Edition
What is the purpose of modeling? There can be only two. The first is to say what happened, to explain. But in order to do this one must first assume…
Posted inStatistics
Making Up Data To Prove Models?
There is this idea in statistics called the "bootstrap." The idea is not crazy, but it's not quite right either. Works like this: data comes in, and usually some parameterized…
Posted inStatistics
Reproducibility Crises Will Be Forever With Us Until We Abandon Classical Statistics
The scientist stood before them.He announced his result with glee.It sounds impossible?Can you say it's not bull?It's true 'cause my P is wee! Until classical statistics, with its focus on…
