#### How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis

Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some,…

#### More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics

Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any---I said any---dataset x. And all it takes is one---I said…

#### Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!

The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…

#### FREE CLASS

UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2: Quid Est Veritas? (blog, Substack). Class 3: Belief & Faith & The Necessity of…

#### The Predictive Way Is The Only Way In Statistics: Sick Cow Edition

What is the purpose of modeling? There can be only two. The first is to say what happened, to explain. But in order to do this one must first assume…

#### How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Verification 1

We are finally at the most crucial part of the modeling process: proving if the damned thing works. Not "works" in the sense that we get good unobservable parameter estimates,…

#### How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis

Query: now that I'm a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don't see how they'd help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…

#### One Milwaukee Ballot Curiosity & One New Theoretical Voter Fraud Tool

Milwaukee Milwaukee is comprised of a number of wards, almost 500, from which was collected the number of votes each candidate received in both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections…