I was reading a draft of a book our own Fr John Rickert’s is working on. Visual Logic: Seeing Classical and Modern Logic: An Introduction, a neat little handbook showing how to […]
Probability is Logic
Probabilities For Unique Events, Like Nuclear War, Exists
This will appear obscure to you. It isn’t. The errors here are fundamental, and cascade all throughout science. They account for, in part, why science has become so bad. The politics are […]
Proof Probability & Statistics & AI Don’t Discover Cause
Everybody has read, or seen adaptations of, Bram Stocker’s documentation of Dracula, the undead count, unlate of Transylvania. From these pages and films, we all know how to kill a vampire. In […]
Top Scientists Plead For Someone To Calculate The Probability Of The End Of The World
Here’s how the AP climate doom article starts: Experts are ignoring the worst possible climate change catastrophic scenarios, including collapse of society or the potential extinction of humans, however unlikely, a group […]
Local & Necessary Truths In Mathematical Proofs — And Probability
This video requires little math beyond what used to be taught in college. Its speaker is Terry Tao, who some say is the world’s best living mathematician. Its (fun—truly) subject is gaps […]
On Cause In Probability Models
Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title “When Cause Is Not A Cause — Another Anti-P-Value Argument”. The post itself is extracted and modified from this set of […]
Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question
From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, “The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the number […]
Subjective Probability Is Objective
Because certain forms of Bayesian probability, particularly so-called subjective probability, are being taken up in quantum mechanics, it’s well to understand just what subjective probability is, if it’s anything, and how belief […]
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