Search results for ‘probability’

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you’ll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability does not […]

Probability is Logic

I was reading a draft of a book our own Fr John Rickert’s is working on. Visual Logic: Seeing Classical and Modern Logic: An Introduction, a neat little handbook showing how to […]

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article “The Gambler Who Beat Roulette“, and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose at casinos; […]

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn’t. Bayes is a helpful […]

The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises

What is the chance that “Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election”? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an infinite collection […]

On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems

I was reading through some of James Franklin’s papers on logical probability in an effort to not embarrass myself when I make my speech at the Broken Science Initiative event next weekend. […]

How “The Science” Is Created By Not Understanding Belief & Decision Are Not Uncertainty & Probability

Stick with me on this not-so-easy subject, because I’m going to reveal a trick used to make you “Follow the Science!” Belief is an act. Uncertainty is a state. Decision is a […]

The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2

My dad and I built a coin flipping machine. Then made this video (you might have to click the link): LINK FIXED. Link, because the embedding is not working. https://youtu.be/8XX0iRAN–8 (The double […]