#### Moving Away From The Mysticism Of “Random” Numbers

ET Jaynes in his must-have Probability Theory: The Logic of Science said, "It appears to be a quite general principle that, whenever there is a randomized way of doing something,…

#### The Difference Between Variability & Uncertainty In Risk

Reader question: Dear Dr. Briggs I regularly read your blog and have purchased both your books. I especially liked your book on Uncertainty, although I need to study it a…

#### The Gremlins Of MCMC: Or, Computer Simulations Are Not What You Think

I don't think we're clear on what simulation is NOT. RANDOMNESS IS NOT NECESSARY, for the simple reason randomness is merely a state of knowledge. Hence this classic post from…

#### FREE CLASS

UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2: Quid Est Veritas? (blog,…

#### Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty

Let's drag the statistician's hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…

#### How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis

Query: now that I'm a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don't see how they'd help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…

#### How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part VIII — Starting Stan

Review! You must at least review the first lessons---all class material is on one page for ease. I'll have more words about the mysticism of simulation, but I've said it…