Statistics – Page 118 – William M. Briggs

Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!

The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…

Statistics

Coronavirus Update II, Stats & Predictions

The code to do the plots yourself is here, a post which should be read for all the caveats, explanations, and so on. The original coronavirus post is here, which…

Class Statistics

Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question

From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, "The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is…

Statistics

Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners

Today's post title is stolen from a paper by the same name "Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners: Do Trends Vary by Gender, Race, and Class?" in Gender &…

Culture Statistics

Experts Mystified Why Gender Dysphoria Increasing

Here's the headline: Cases of gender dysphoria in Swedish teenage girls up 1,500 percent since 2008. The Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare says that the number of cases…

Class Statistics

Coronavirus Statistics: R Code Included! — Updated With Hack To Adjust For New Reporting Methods

Intro I thought it would be fun to turn the daily coronavirus predictions I've been making into statistics class, complete with code. There are two parts to this: (1) the…

Statistics

Over-Certainty of Polygenic Scores

This is really a Part I of a series of articles about the latest trend (fad?) in statistical biology, but I didn't want to label it that way, which would…

Statistics

You Can’t Predict The Unpredictable

There is, or might even not be, some BAD THING ahead of us. I don't know what it is, and you don't know what it is, and nobody knows what…

Marbles! – William M. Briggs on Marbles!June 24, 2026
[…] I am on the road and am way behind on posts—I have a 3,500 word article on deriving Oughts…
Brian (bulaoren) on Marbles!June 24, 2026
For the past 48 hours, I've been considering a fundamental, structural, problem with marbles; " Marmorism". Some people will accumulate…
John Pate on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Marbles was a thing in my primary school in Cambridge, England in the sixties. I don't recall girls ever playing…
Jess on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Somewhere, I have my brother's bag of marbles. I sometimes think I should go through them to see if there…
Cary D Cotterman on Marbles!June 23, 2026
In the summer of 1960, in Fresno, California, I lost my promotional "KYNO Top-Dog Radio" boulder in a game of…