Statistics – Page 118 – William M. Briggs

The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes

The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…

Statistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

Class Statistics

So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example

Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: "GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ". Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…

Statistics

Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong

We used to talk a lot about the amygdala here: Yet Another Study "Proves" Liberal, Conservative Brain Differences (wee ps, amygdalas), Scientists Suddenly Discover Men Don't Understand Women (wee ps,…

Class Statistics

When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense

This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron…

Statistics

SAT’s Adversity Score New Way To Enforce Racial Quotas

The College Board will soon attach Pity Points to SAT scores. The Pity Points will be used to suggest that those who scored poorly did not in fact score poorly…

Statistics

An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument

This is extracted from this set of papers, which should be read in full. An ordinary regression model is written mu = beta_0x_1 + ... + beta_0x_p, where mu…

Statistics

Many Atheists Still Believe In Higher Powers—Whatever Those Are

A new report on atheists is of interest. It's "Understanding Unbelief: Atheists and agnostics around the world: Interim findings from 2019 research in Brazil, China, Denmark, Japan, the United Kingdom,…

Don B on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 9, 2026
1. THIS will be the year the long-awaited, often predicted bear will hit the U.S. stock market, precipitating similar bears…
John Pate on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 8, 2026
The amusing thing is one of the facilitators of China's rise is its falling fertility, giving it the breathing space…
Neil Taylor on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 8, 2026
1. A protester will open fire and kill multiple ICE agents. 2. Kier Starmer will loose his job as leader…
Uncle Mike on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 8, 2026
Well then Tars, if depopulating China is your goal, they should definitely end restrictions on births. Because the fewer the…
Brian (bulaoren) on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 8, 2026
@Tars Tarkas While living in China, I never felt a need for more people or cars. I did, however, often…