Coin Flips and Dice Rolls Doug Keenan has a must-read piece in the Wall Street Journal on the time series analysis of global temperature (Thanks to Randy, Roger, and John…

Most statistics purporting to show that there has been an increase in hurricanes do not use the best statistical methods. I want to highlight one particular method that is often…

It's already well known that the Remote Sensing Systems satellite-derived temperature data has released the January figures: the finding is that it's colder this January than it has been for…

This subject comes up so often and in so many places, and so many people ask me about it, that I thought a short explanation would be appropriate. You may…

I often say---it is even the main theme of this blog---that people are too certain. This is especially true when people report results from classical statistics, or use classical methods…

Parts of this analysis were suggested by Allan MacRae, who kindly offered comments on the exposition of this article which greatly improved its readability. The article is incomplete, but I…