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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

On The Attribution Of A Single Event To Climate Change

Rained yesterday here in the city of cities. Must be because of climate change, right? Hey. The climate did change and it did rain. What more evidence do you want?…
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Posted inStatistics

The Philosophy Of Rock Paper Scissors

Way my dad and I used to play is that when somebody won they got to grab the hand of the loser and then, with the fore- and middle-fingers only,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Infinite Surprise And Impossible Events

It's a lazy Saturday, so some musings today on entropy and information and probability. It's about time we started tying these things together. Things like the following are heard: "Given…
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Posted inStatistics

Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell

I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed

People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
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Posted inStatistics

Can We Predict The Unpredictable?

The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today's post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Change Causing Short Peruvians!

Who remembers those crank scientists who wanted to genetically engineer human beings so that they would be sprier and narrower and thus have smaller "carbon footprints"? We don't need 'em!…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To

We're finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article "Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series." Let's return to the Screaming Willies.…
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  1. Ronald Conneely on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 20, 2025

    Great analysis as usual but be careful, you are bordering on that dreded (R----t) area. Would hate to lose your…

  2. Williis Eschenbach on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    Thanks, Matt, that's what I figured, just wanted to verify it. w.

  3. Briggs on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    Willis, Sure, you can change the model to remove the probability leakage. Careful modelers would. The vast majority would not,…

  4. William Ward Eschenbach on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    As usual, most fascinating. This may be a foolish question, but since the minimum score is 200, what happens if…

  5. KGB on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 20, 2025

    And if my aunt had balls...

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