Statistics – Page 189 – William M. Briggs

Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink: Update 3

If you're new to the site, don't forget to check out the Classic Posts page. Our continuing walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is postponed until next week. Feel free to…

Statistics

Response To Trenberth Over “Why Models Run Hot”

Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. A reporter from Nature who could not be brought to understand science was more important than fallacy…

Culture Statistics

Reporting On So-Called Climate Reporters: Update 4

Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. The first section of this article contains background on the subject which should be read, the second…

Culture Statistics

Give Up Carbon For Lent?

Ought to be easy to give up carbon for Lent, as the Global Catholic Climate Movement suggests1. Step one: don't exhale and don't eat---your breath and food are chock full…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Johnno on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 21, 2026
" I have never been a conspiracy theorist, for the simple fact that keeping secrets with multiple (tens, hundreds, and…
Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
@Cary Motorcycle accident? No, that was due to covid.
Cary D Cotterman on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
In the mid '70s I was the janitor at Cal Tech's Kerkhoff Marine Laboratory, where they studied the effects of…
Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
I'm waiting for members of the California Coastal Commission to start disappearing.
Bill Hankel on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
Thank you for your application of common sense (and math!) to this issue. I have never been a conspiracy theorist,…