Posted inStatistics
Response To Trenberth Over “Why Models Run Hot”
Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. A reporter from Nature who could not be brought to understand science was more important than fallacy…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Reporting On So-Called Climate Reporters: Update 4
Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. The first section of this article contains background on the subject which should be read, the second…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Give Up Carbon For Lent?
Ought to be easy to give up carbon for Lent, as the Global Catholic Climate Movement suggests1. Step one: don't exhale and don't eat---your breath and food are chock full…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III
Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
Posted inStatistics
Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V
Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…
Posted inStatistics
Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty
A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…