#### Uncertainty (#1 New Release in Statistics) Book Page — Here Are The Details. Update!

This isn't the book page. This is. Or you can buy it here. The page is permanently located at the menu bar at the top of the page, at the…

#### The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause. New Paper

Cancer of the albondigas is horrifyingly under-diagnosed. See your doctor today and ask him if Profitizol is right for you. Today's post, in a way, is at Arxiv: The Crisis…

#### The Philosophy Of Uncertainty: An Introduction. Complete Preface. Update

Le livre, he is done! I yesterday sent a proposal to a philosophy editor at Cambridge. Not enough equations or pictures in it to pique the interest of the statistics…

#### Randomness And The “Null” Hypothesis

Last week of teaching! Randomness is not a cause. Neither is chance. It is always a mistake to say things like "explainable by chance", "random change", "the differences are random",…

#### Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept

https://twitter.com/Bigdatanalysis/status/573739862924353536 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by "springing forward", we continue our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles next week. If you can't read the tweet above, it says…

#### The Rise Of Bayes

Thanks to reader Frank Kristeller we learn that the far left New York Times yesterday ran an article by F.D. Flam praising the rise of Bayesian statistics: The Odds, Continually…

#### I Also Declare The Bayesian vs. Frequentist Debate Over For Data Scientists

I stole the title, adding the word "also", from an article by Rafael Irizarry at Simply Stats (tweeted by Diego Kuonen). First, brush clearing. Data scientists. Sounds like galloping bureaucratic…

#### Improper Language About Priors

Suppose you decided (almost surely by some ad hoc rule) that the uncertainty in some thing (call it y) is best quantified by a normal distribution with central parameter θ…