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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Bayesian Statistics Ruled Illegal?

Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled "IPCC statistics ruled illegal" in which he said, "Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments…
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Posted inStatistics

EPA’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan

The EPA has asked for my advice.1 They will not listen to, or harken, or act on this advice, but asking for it gives them a sense that they have…
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Posted inFun Statistics

On Dowsing—Guest Post by Ray Kidd

I dug a one-meter square test pit outside an 18th century ruined cottage. A "dowser" invited to test his powers stood beside the pit dangling a bob on a string.…
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Posted inStatistics

Science Can Tell If You’re A Racist Just By Looking At You

George Carlin used to advise those who wanted to avoid jury duty to tell the judge, "Don't worry about me, your honor. I can tell guilty people---<snap!>---just like that!" We…
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Posted inStatistics

The Second & Third Most Depressing Graphs: The Encroachment Of Government

Update This stays top for today because we're still waiting for some regulars to chime in and because I'm busy. Here is federal government spending as a fraction of the…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Most Depressing Graph: Per Capita Federal Spending Rises Alarmingly: Update

There is no more saddening picture of the progress of government than this one (the second & third most depressing graphs are here): This is the amount of money the…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Best Movie Oscar Prediction Via Statistical Modeling: Update, The Model Wins

Update I humbly accept your congratulations. Argo will win Oscar for Best Picture, according to our non-patented, statistically significant almost-mathematical computer model. The key reasons for its victory will be:…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Science Proves Farting On Airplanes, Exposing Buttocks To Sun Healthy

According to the latest in medical science, I sat next or near to an exceptionally healthy individual on my last flight. My keen olfactory senses alerted me that a fellow…
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  1. JRob on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 14, 2026

    Wow, Wow, Wow! Someone else used the exaggeration method! Years ago I tried to figure out the Monte Hall problem…

  2. McChuck on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 13, 2026

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    I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…

  5. Johnno on Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death PenaltyMay 12, 2026

    We should make it a law that whenever a criminal is sentened to death, that the only method to delay…

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