Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
On Probability Leakage
Submitted for your approval, yet another paper. On Probability Leakage, posted at Arxiv. Once you, my beloved readers, have had a go with it, I'll incorporate your comments in an…
Posted inStatistics
Differences In Brains Between Believers And Atheists?
The following question was posed at the (inaptly named) magazine Scientific American, "Is there a difference between the brain of an atheist and the brain of a religious person?" It…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Curtis’s The Science Of Subjectivity
An unfocused post today; just some notes on a paper. Busy day for me. Andrew Curtis wrote, "The science of subjectivity" in the January 2012 issue of the journal Geology…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What’s The Difference Between A Confidence Interval And A Credible Interval? Update
Twitter @ceptional reminded me of this post, which I had forgotten. Since it is highly relevant to The Great Bayesian Switch, I decided to repost. Some minor errors in grammar…
Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
The Great Bayesian Switch
Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…
Posted inStatistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV
There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III
This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II
Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…