Statistics – Page 257 – William M. Briggs

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…

Philosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…

Statistics

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

The Edge every year asks top science celebrities a penetrating, yet fun, always fun, question. Last year's was "What scientific concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit?" One of the correspondent…

Philosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…

Philosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…

Culture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
@Cary Motorcycle accident? No, that was due to covid.
Cary D Cotterman on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
In the mid '70s I was the janitor at Cal Tech's Kerkhoff Marine Laboratory, where they studied the effects of…
Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
I'm waiting for members of the California Coastal Commission to start disappearing.
Bill Hankel on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
Thank you for your application of common sense (and math!) to this issue. I have never been a conspiracy theorist,…
Lucy Tucker on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
You’re the best?????