Posted inFun Statistics
Are Experts Better At Predicting Sports Than Ordinary Fans?
Today's post is over at the new and, yes, improved Edgehogs.com. Our launch was a couple of months ago. Since that time we've got a good chunk of games and…
Posted inStatistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus
This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V
We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV
In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III
We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II
The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I
The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Something To Be Thankful For: Climategate 2.0
Thanks to Mr, or Mrs, Anonymous, that generous individual who has graced us with a new batch of emails from the world's top climate scientists. These new missives are guaranteed…