Only 2 days left! Predictions For 2012: Submit Yours Today!

Update Predictions are closed for this year. Come back New Year’s Eve to see how we’ve done.

Predictions for 2012

We’ll change the rules slightly this year and ask that everybody now predict the winner of the 2012 USA presidential election. This can be as simple as Obama or not-Obama, or an actual prediction of who the not-Obama will be. My own prediction is Mitt Romney.

Do not give a conditional prediction, other than conditioned on the potential candidates. Do not say, for example, “If the economy improves, Obama will win.” Say “Obama will win” or say who else will. After that, feel free to give a conditional prediction, but know that “economy improves” is unbearably loose.

Update Clarification. Here is what your “unconditional” prediction should be: When we all wake up on 7 November 2012, who will be the newly elected President of the United States? This prediction is conditional only on the supposition that a person will be named on that date, and no nonsense like what happened with Gore will repeat.

Yes, this is hard and, yes, nobody knows who this person will be. That is what makes it a prediction. When asking for predictions like this, the natural tendency is to hedge, or offer a range of conditionals, “If Hillary replaces Biden, then Obama’s chances are better.” Better they may be, but this is not a prediction of who will be president. Generating (loose) conditionals is one way people convince themselves that they are better forecasters than they really are. Right, IPCC?

Look to this space for an important prediction app once the Republican nominee becomes known.

Here are last year’s predictions and last year’s verifications. Izzy was the big winner.

Here’s the rules from last year (with dates changed):

We shall aim for truth. Be as facetious as you like, but affix genuine predictions (if any) with the letter RP, for “real prediction.” No real predictions about personal status, please! No “forecasts” along the lines of, “After 2012, I will be one year older. Har har.”

To maintain as wide an interest as possible, let’s try to keep national or international in scope (this includes surmises about specific technology). If it is not otherwise obvious, provide directions for unambiguous verification of your predictions. We don’t want anybody hiding behind the excuses of the type, “That’s what I really meant.”

Once 2013 rolls around, and if I still draw breath and am able to edit this site (covering all bases, here), we’ll see how well we did. There will be no evading the ignominy of a failed prediction by calling it a “scenario” here. Limit yourself to events falling withing the calendar year of 2011. No official entries past two weeks (all comments close at this point automatically).

I expect full participation, gang. Fire up those engines of infallibility and get forecasting! I’ll post my own predictions in the comments section with everybody else’s.


  1. equinox

    1. Obama will not win the 2012 general election. I don’t know who will win. If Hillary Clinton were to take the top of the ticket, she will win, but this will not happen.
    2. The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Index will not go over 15,000 points in 2012.
    3. The S&P 500 Index will not reach 1500 points in 2012.


    RP: The GOP establishment will annoint the old-timer who’s “Turn” has come. Reagan. I mean Dole. I mean McCain. I mean ROMMNEY.

    The challenge is to predict the GOP VP. I predict Perry. Following the Dan Quayle tradition…

    Therefore (or nevertheless) I predict the GOP nominee will defeat the incumbent.

    In other RPs

    I predict other institutions (besides the University of East Anglica,
    Pennsylvania State University, and U of Virginia) will be challenged
    with Freedom-of-Information requests for climate emails and data
    dumps. Calling the shot: Texas, California, Colorado, and at the
    federal level, the US military are front-runners to see such requests.
    Less than half of such requests will generate outright refusals. Less
    than a tenth of such requests will be completely fullfilled as specified.
    At least one such request will arise from “left” wing activists intending
    to establish the influence of “big oil” on the climate research industry.

    In the US Congress, new legislation will gut the Ted-Kennedy/GW Bush
    joint effort — “No Child Left Behind”. All former provisions requiring
    objective measures of student performance or progress will be
    rendered meaningless. All enforcement provisions or threats of
    reduced funding will be postponed. Additional spending on “new
    technology” will be authorized.

    In Europe, the monetary union (Euro) will be nominally preserved but
    other — localized, electronic — money-like media of exchange will be
    developed. These will be comparable to PayPal points. A Ponzi-like
    arbitrage scandal will dent but not break the adoption curve on the non-Euro.

    In South America, Brazil will surprise the neighbors and demonstrate
    some military “belligerence” — i.e. standing up for itself against aggressive
    moves by other S.A nations.

    Polar Bears will be passe’ and a new Arctic creature (baby harp seal?) will
    become the endangered face and poster child of the fight against global
    pollution. A new “pollutant” (other than “Carbon”) will be identified as a
    global threat to wildlife.

    The border between China and North Korea will become more problematic.
    Officially fewer crossings will be permitted but actual numbers will go up.
    Also, another huge investment in China lauded by NYT columnist Tom
    Friedman will be discovered to be unworkable. A new independence/protest
    movement — like the Gulang Fong, only centered in Tibet or Mongolia or
    the Burmese border — will develop and be crushed.

  3. faride

    Obama will win convincingly!

    In line with 2011, we will see a few more dictators following the same path as as Qaddafi and Kim Jong-il…. Mugabe and Castro leading the pack
    Iran will be placed under severe international embargo

    By December, after Obama get reelected, US sanctions on Cuba will be lifted after 50 years.

    Facebook will be loosing members

    Google will fail again in the hardware business, in soite of having bought Motorola mobility.

  4. Jim Fedako

    With 100% certainty: the Republican party will continue to satisfy its contract with America, so to speak, by finding a thread of constitutional authority in every bill they pass.

  5. Katie

    Obama will ditch Biden for Hilary Clinton as running mate.

    Biden’s new role will have a high profile internationally (IMF? Sec of State? World Bank? UN?) so it won’t seem too much like a demotion.

    China’s military will be more of a global presence, and not just in a friendly, bridge-building kind of way.

    Gorbachev will play a major role in the political reorganization of Russia.

    The European Union will be held together with chalk and chewing gum for the duration of 2012.

    Iran’s nuclear facilities will be taken out, but no one will claim responsibility.

  6. JH

    Obama will win.

    But we all know that certainty is a luxury.

    I wish everyone a happy, peaceful and healthy new year.

  7. DAV

    I prefer ambiguous quatrains myself but….

    Obama will win.

    The margin will be narrower than before. He is the most inept President — even more so than Jimmy Carter. There is growing dissatisfaction but the Republicans will need to pull a Reagan out of their collective hat to win.

  8. WjB

    Obama will take it.

    As Faride said Facebook will begin its descent.

    Man United with top the Premier League, Barca will easily conquer the Champions League, and Spain will no doubt take the Euro 2012 cup.

    And 80s-type music and movies will make a resurgence. (see:

  9. 1- President Obama reelected. Republicans unable to define a principled conservative message for the general electorate to rally behind and so the country chooses the devil they know.

    2- Gov. Christie of NJ is strongly pressured to accept the Rep vice presidential nomination but eventually declines.

    3- American law officers and judges will be arrested for Mexican drug cartel bribery but not until after the election completed.

    4- China will experience a major financial crisis. The US, fearing lax Chinese banking rules are covering up titanic pits of doom, responds weakly, further inflates the money supply and sets the stage for the Grand Recession and the hyperinflation of 2013.

    5- The Syrian government will still be in power at the end of 2012, if only in Damascus.

    6- A solar eruption will cause wide spread power disruptions and electronic damage.

    7- Snarky stories poo-pooing the End of the World predictions will dominate the December news cycle. Knowing how often the media is wrong, canned food sales increase 25% over 2010 levels.

    8- Still, the Earth abides.

  10. John Morris

    After failing to cover myself with glory last time I will try again anyway. It’s fun and getting a bold prediction right eventually will be more fun than a minor one.

    The media will exhibit the same split personality in 2012 as it did in 2000. In 2000 the front page was always about the wonderful Clinton boom times and the importance of electing Gore to keep em going; meanwhile the financial pages were splashed with the carnage of the .com meltdown and more the tone of “Oh my God! We are DOOMED! Weesa gonna die!” In November and December the two storylines converged in the front page with news of a recession. This will repeat in 2012, the front page full of stories of increasing employment (as the official rate remains stubornly high in spite of heroic efforts to cook the books, never below 8.3%) growing economic activity, etc. while the financial pages will be tales of woe. Until after the election. Official inflation will remain low while prices on store shelves continue to go up.

    To predict the election requires to first predict the economy, which depends on an accurate guess on whether Europe can be held together until after November. While every effort will be expended by the US establishment to hold it off to save Obama’s bacon, I will predict it fails because the problem is bigger than that and things that can’t continue don’t. When Europe goes the US double dips, ending Obama’s chances to be reelected. The Rs make small gains in the House and large gains in the Senate. However they will fall short of the sixty needed, wild guess at 57.

    The election prediction is despite the above prediction of the “happy, joy” coverage from the media. Voters aren’t as dumb as the media believe they are. This final insult will drive the final nail in the coffin of the legacy media. Expect CNN and MSNBC to enter 2013 as dead men walking.

    Shouldn’t even attempt to predict what idiocy the Republicans will end up getting up to but I’m going to go with my gut anyway. After all the foolishness ends I’m going with Santorum being a man meeting his time. Boring and something of a prig he is also serious, competent and knowledgable on a lot more issues than the media’s dismissive “just a social con” rap. If Europe goes the country just might be ready for somebody serious and stable.

    Iran will get the Bomb on Obama’s watch, probably by July since the Iranians have to be smart enough to realize that Obama is pretty much the only POTUS likely to allow them to enter the Nuke Club. By Dec 31 it will be obvious that Iraq is lost to the Islamists and the Taliban will salivating in anticipation of our exit from Afganistan but staying fairly quiet to ensure we leave on schedule.

  11. 1. The Republicans will nominate Romney as the presidential candidate and he will be defeated by Obama whose win is guaranteed by the main stream media and the many liberal political action groups. RP
    2. Islamic extremists will take control of Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Syria and form a cabal against the United States RP
    3. The illegal aliens will be given temporary permanent residency in the US but will not be called citizens. RP
    4. Despite the Fast and Furious scandal in the DOJ, gun controls will be further implemented to eliminate the sale of guns that are considered armaments by DOJ and not for defense. RP
    5. Gas prices will rise to 5-6 dollars a gallon. RP
    6. Unemployment will drop to 6% according to the federal governmental methods of determining unemployment RP
    7. Murphy was an optimist.

  12. Luis Dias

    1. The euro crisis continues, and merkozy also continue their incompetence at dealing with the issue, europe enters slight recession, new “plan” to rescue the euro will be announced;

    2. Obama wins (easy one);

    3. Egipt falls into an islamic state, moderates will be handed power in fear of extremists, however sharia law will become egipt’s;

    4. Apple releases its debut tv, with siri tech incorporated, revolutionizing the tv, siri is put into ipods and we enter the decade of mainstream natural language ai “assistants”;

    5. Sarkozy wins the elections;

    6. Putin wins the elections, further outcries of fraud and people go to the streets;

    7. Magnus Carlsen reaches 2850 elo in chess, becoming the second person to do so in history (kasparov was the first);

    8. Climate gate 3.0, consisting in the password of the previous leak file being found. More hilarity ensues, Montford decides to write a new book about it;

    9. 2 012 will be slightly warmer than 2011, but not enough to avoid further embarassment regarding differences towards the models;

    10. More countries will flee kyoto before years end;

    11. Windows 8 will be a dud, praised and criticized by pundits, largely ignored by the pop at general, who will buy it when new computers, and tablets with it will flop;

    12. barcelona wins the champions league… again;


  13. bob

    1. The economy will get better, slowly, throughout the year with the GDP exceeding a 3% per annum rate by election time.
    2. Unemployment will not get much better, but it will be lower than 8% (between 7.5 and 8 percent).
    3. Mitt Romney will be the next President of The United States.
    4. There will be at least one state where the results are too close to call (Pennsylvania or Ohio). The vote recount will get nasty, and there will be some cases of violence probably caused by union thugs and former ACORN employees.
    5. Voter fraud will be rampant, and dozens of cases of cheating using the new electronic voting systems will reveal their vulnerability.
    6. The European Union will still exist, although even closer to splintering.
    7. China will make a military move on Taiwan. Obama will do nothing.

  14. Luis Dias

    All the above are RP btw

  15. Richard Hill

    Obama to win.
    At least one govt will discover that it can handle external debt problems by forcing its own citizens to buy long term bonds. This is done by part paying pensions, civil service salaries etc in bonds rather than currency.

  16. Will

    Here are mine. Of course I have no way of knowing any of these things.

    1. Obama will win the presidential election.
    2. Romney with win the Republican nomination.
    3. Electromagnetic weapons will be used against US assets in south east Asia. The US government will deny it.
    4. Putin will “win” the presidency in Russia, despite protests of corruption.
    5. Anti-immigrant sentiments in Europe will rise, resulting in street skirmishes and curfews in at least one European country.
    6. Child abductions in the continental US will be reach an all time low.
    7. Research in Motion will get a new CEO

  17. JJD

    JJD Predictions for 2012:

    1. RP: A Republican will win the US presidency, but very narrowly. Comment: The Republican candidate will be someone who normally wouldn’t be a viable candidate for dog catcher, a political opportunist who may not even be conservative. Obama will almost squeak by with lies, cynical maneuvering, and the race card, if indeed he is still around for the election. Personalities and manufactured pseudo-issues, not important real issues, will dominate in the election campaign. Seriousness of US and international economic and military situation will not be acknowledged.

    2. RP: The California economy will go farther into the toilet with a bang, not just a whimper. A major project will fail or be killed, a big company will leave the state, or a government-shaking revolt against taxation or job-killing government measures will happen.

    3. RP: One of the big eco-NGO’s (Greenpeace, WWF, etc) will acrimoniously split. Comment: This is a risky one. I dreamed it.

    4. RP: Serious military confrontation, involving missile fire, between Iran and some opponent. Not just an Iran proxy vs. Israel. Iran itself.

    5. RP: The Large Hadron Collider will not produce a definitive confirmation of a Higgs particle or any other new or surprising physics. Motivated by the large cost of the project, there will be many “almosts” and “could bes” and gee-whiz confirmations of unsurprising things.

    6. Too easy: The winter will not be as cold as has been predicted, and prominent global warming freaks will point this out as evidence that global warming is progressing even faster than expected.

  18. revGDright

    US personnel will engage in combat operations in Mexico.

  19. In honor of it being 2012 I’m making 13 predictions. Read ’em and weep.

    1. Obama will win the presidency [sigh]
    2. His margin of victory will be less than in 2008
    3. Republicans will hold the House
    4. Republicans will squeak through and initially control the Senate
    5. But sometime during the year Republicans will again lose control of the Senate [sigh]
    6. Green Bay wins the Super Bowl
    7. AG Holder will step down
    8. Clinton will leave the State Dept
    9. North Korea will conduct another nuclear test
    10. The new kid running North Korea will be generally recognized to be a puppet
    11. China will admit they, too, are experiencing severe economic outcomes
    12. The London Olympics will experience at least one “terrorist” caused event delay or postponement
    13. The new hybrid double deck “New Bus for London” [NBfL] buses introduced by Boris Johnson will become the “talk of town”. NOTE: Yes, this could go either way. I’m saying one way or the other, they will cause significant comments outside the UK.

    Happy New Year to you, too. And you, and you and you and you and you and . . . . .

  20. mct

    Obama will win, probably comfortably.

    Downunder, we will see a scandal-driven change of government, with a landslide of historic proportions.

    The army will take control of Pakistan, and in at least one country the ‘democracy’ brought on by the Arab Spring will be revealed to be of the ‘one vote, one value, once’ variety.

    Apple’s iThings will come under serious malware attack.

  21. commieBob

    1 – Record low voter turnout. Lots of people who voted for Obama last time won’t bother to vote this time.

    People are deeply dissatisfied. The Tea Party and the Occupy Movement are manifestations of the same thing. There may be light at the end of the tunnel. Larry Lessig may have put his finger on the problem:

    2 – Some members of the Tea Party and the Occupy Movement find common cause and work to take the Republic back from the corruption in which it is mired. This may or may not be big enough for the main stream media to notice by the end of 2012. If it doesn’t get traction, things will continue to get worse.

  22. Vinny Burgoo

    1. Obama will win the 2012 election.

    2. No Impact Man will crash his rickshaw.

    3. A dentist will be killed by a polar bear.

    4. Bo Derek will visit Ecuador.

    5. Chile’s Mount Melimoyu will erupt.

    6. Africagate2 won’t dislodge Rajendra Pachauri from the IPCC.

    7. Britain will spend £1 billion stockpiling bird flu vaccines.

    8. There will be a worldwide shortage of cotton paper.

    9. China will send ‘military advisors’ to South Sudan.

    10. Oxfam will pay for John Vidal to be photographed riding a camel.

  23. obiwankenobi

    Scanning the above it seems all the major bases have been adequately covered; however, there’s still room for:

    RP 1: The next POTUS won’t be Obama (while driving across the heartland of America this fall I did not see a single Obama bumper sticker); it’ll be the R nominee (but I have no idea who that may turn out to be, Romney is safe money but this thing is far from over).
    RP 2: The Occupy Movement will attempt to make the Democratic National Convention a reenactment of the 1968 Chicago riot.
    RP 3: Iran will negotiate on their nuclear program to bide time and stave off sanctions while continuing their quest for a fission device, which will not be realized in 2012.
    RP 4: A cabinet level official (Chu) will resign but not until after the election.
    RP 5: Andy Schleck, who got second each of the last two years in the Tour de France, will change his strategy and focus on and win the Giro d’Italia, a race much more suited to the pure climber than 2012’s TdF.

    RP 3:

  24. Will

    What does RP mean?

  25. Ernesto

    When we all wake up on 7 November 2012 the newly elected President of the United States will be: Barack Obama.
    When we all wake up on 8 October 2012 the newly elected President of Venezuela will be: Hugo Chavez.
    Hugo Chavez health will deteriorate though.

  26. @ Will: It means he read the post and followed directions.


    A second bite at this apple — predicting easy things that WON’T happen despite long standing prediction from other quarters. This, in line with Brigg’s notion that the best way to model/predict tomorrow’s weather forecast is to copy today’s report.


    Retail adoption of Radio Frequency IDentification systems (RFID) for perpetual inventory and location tracking will _not_ emerge from pilot projects into wide scale adoption.

    Texas will _not_ merge their electrical distribution grid (ERCOT) with the other continental grids.

    The IBM “Watson” natural language computer will _not_ be widely deployed in medical diagnostics during 2012.

    Although the Organization of American States may call for enforcement of long-standing declarations, which parallel the situation in Libya, the US will _not_ intervene in nearby Haiti.

    The detainees in Gitmo will _not_ be either moved to mainland prisons or repatriated to the country of capture before the 2012 elections — a promise to do so will be headlined.

    Vlad Putin will _not_ step down from power in whatever Russia calls itself for another year.

    Belgium will _not_ form a parliamentary governing partnership.

  28. 1) Obama wins the presidency
    2) Obamacare is upheld by the supreme court.
    3) Apple revolutionizes TV with a premium TV set offering (not a set top box).
    4) Microsoft Windows Phone7 does not get any traction in the US marketplace.
    5) Nokia/Microsoft partnership will cause WP7 to get some marketshare outside US, but growth will soon start to plateau.
    6) Apple will settle with all parties it is suing regarding IOS patents.

  29. Gary

    Less than fifty percent of the legitimate predictions made here will be judged as correct.

  30. John M

    1) Mitt Romney is Republican nominee.
    2) Obama wins popular vote, but Romney wins Electoral College and the presidency.
    3) Dow hits 14000, but retreats.
    4) Saints win Super Bowl and New Orleans parties…either way.
    5) Canucks win Stanley Cup and cops successfully lock down the city.
    6) Heat win NBA championship and it appears fans riot, but turns out to be just Miami Hurricane players out for normal night on the town.
    7) Tigers win World Series, fans can’t find anything to destroy.
    8) Oakland longshoremen finally get tired of Occupy crowd and initiate some serious nosebleeds.

  31. John M

    Damn Happy Face. Obviously a typo.

  32. Tom M

    1) Obama wins presidency.
    2) The DJIA and S&P 500 have a positive year.
    3) No major currencies collapse. Yet.
    4) At least one country leaves the European Union.
    5) Bank of America (BAC) closes the year up at least 50%.
    6) Google (GOOG) has a higher market capitalization than Microsoft (MSFT), but there is a lot of skepticism as to whether or not it is truly a more valuable company.
    7) Gold does not reach $2,000/oz at any point (despite excessive competitive devaluation of currencies).
    8) The Miami Heat win the NBA Championship.
    9) Facebook goes public and is valued at over 100 billion dollars after first day of trading.
    10) The world does not end.

  33. JakeTX

    Obama is NOT the Democrat nominee.

    GOP candidate wins general election.

    Unemployment is over 9% by November.

    Iranian regime attacks Israel.

    GOP takes Senate.

    Billy Joel dies.

    Bill Clinton dies.

    Kate Middleton announces she is with child.

    California defaults on public pensions.

  34. John Morris

    Forgot to make a prediction on the big upcoming story of 2012. The Supremes issue a 5-4 decision striking the individual mandate from ObamaCare but discover a severability clause that was hidden from the sight of us mere mortals. Since the Rs have no hope of achieving the supermajority in the Senate required to repeal (the Ds will stand solid to sustain a fillibuster because they understand just how much power is at stake) the remainder, it will become clear by the end of the year that we are speeding toward a Single Payer system and the Rs will have to bite the bullet and implement it because the insurance industry will be tottering on the edge of collapse.

  35. 1. Obombo will attack Iran. Marxists are incredibly violent, and Barry is no exception.

    2. The Feds will firebomb old-growth forests (just as they did in 2011). Record conflagrations will occur (just as they did in 2011).

    3. Buoyed by all his “manly” aggression, Obombo will win. The GOP will run a prize dwid, someone true patriots cannot stomach, and that will also help put “our” Commie Prez over the top.

    4. Real* US unemployment will rise to over 50% (*but not the phony Gummit numbers, which will deviate bizarrely from reality).

    5. The globe will continue to cool, as it has been doing for the last 15 years, but the lunatic Thermageddonists will claim differently.

    6. Europe will sink into anarchy, with violent revolution upwelling in at least 2 countries (Greece and Portugal). The EU will dissolve, and NATO along with it, and France and Russia will form a new Axis of Evil, pincering Germany.

    7. World War III will start, in Europe as usual, although it will not be recognized as such until ’13 or ’14.

    8. Emboldened by war mongering, the Left will undertake new genocides in Africa and Asia. The mass blood-letting will soon spread worldwide.

    9. Nuclear war will not occur in 2012; I predict that catastrophe will not happen until 2013.

  36. Rosco

    1. Obama will win the election by default because of the lack of a charismatic opponent.

    2. There will be no “freedom” for the citizens of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Egypt and several other Arab countries.

    3. The military or a puppet figure will replace dictators that have been overthrown by popular uprisings in Egypt and Libya.

    4. Tunisia will remain the “odd one out” – its peaceful transition to a more open society will ultimately succeed whereas the others will fail by violence.

    5. The European Union’s policies on carbon pricing will worsen Europe’s financial difficulties.

    6. The US will require another agreement to raise the debt ceiling in 2012 – bit of a no-brainer really.

    7. Climate alarmism will continue to disappear from the media.

  37. GregO

    My predictions:

    1. Obama to win due to overwhelming US media support and poor contender.

    2. Guantanamo Bay detention facility will remain open and will continue to imprison allegedly enemies of the state.

    3. The Af/Pak war will continue with US forces playing a significant role

    4. Ditto for the Iraq war

    5. US unemployment (U3) will remain above 8% but government accounting may claim it is lower. Minorities and the young (particularly young college graduates) will find getting and holding a full-time job/career practically impossible. There will (continue) to emerge a young, educated class of people who will work temporary/part-time jobs.

    6. This will finally lead to a formal movement rethinking the value of a college education. The current system will widely begin to be seen as a money-making scam as opposed to a social contract rewarding merit and competence.

    7. News media (print, TV) will continue to downplay CAGW. Eventually a new panic will be found to replace CAGW but not next year.

    8. US Voter turn-out for the presidential election will be an historic low.

    9. The US will not invade Iran.

    10. The EU will continue largely intact, but broken and corrupt scandals will be reported on at least monthly until censorship from non-reporting and boredom and deep hopelessness set in.

    11. Russia’s birthrate will continue to recover.

  38. Ken

    RE: “Update Clarification. Here is what your “unconditional” prediction should be: When we all wake up on 7 November 2012, who will be the newly elected President of the United States?”

    THE [almost] CERTAIN OUTCOME IS–not a “prediction” or “scenario”: Obama. Assuming he’s still alive and has not been “vacated” from office for any reason.

    Reason: Per the terms of the “Update Clarification” there will only be precisely exactly two people that come close to addressing the statement as posed: 1) President Obama, and 2) President Elect somebody that may or may not be Obama.

    As the “Update Clarification” explicitly queries who will be the newly elected President of the US on 7 Nov 2012 ONLY ONE PERSON can possibly fullfill that criteria: Obama (or whoever the actual President of the USA is at that time). Even if Obama (or whoever) loses the presidential election the other person is a “President Elect” & NOT “President” as posed by the question. Thus, the “President Elect” cannot fulfill the query’s criteria for “President.”

    OF COURSE, the above reflects the sort of strict nitpicky parsing of words that has just recently come into vogue with with blog via two successive essay series….and while I realise that the above doesn’t reflect [I hope] the blogger’s intent with the poorly worded “Clarification” that is what was effectively asked. Which is noted here only to illustrate how inane this is all getting.

  39. Rich

    1. The President of the United States will be a polar bear called Leslie who is currently scavenging in bins in Anchorage.
    2. The global average temperature will go both up and down.
    3. The World Series will be won by a team good at whatever games are played in the World Series.
    4. The Gregorian calendar will be abandoned in favour of John Dee’s much more accurate 33-year calendar. Washington will be declared the capital of the World.
    5. A three-mile wide asteroid will fall into the middle of the Pacific. Thousands of surfers in Australia and California die happy.
    6. The Bilderberg Group will abduct contributors to the famous William Briggs blog and compel them to make predictions for 2014. No-one will get rich.
    7. The BBC will make a documentary about David Attenborough in his wild state.
    8. China will continue to hold tea. And coffee. And sandwiches. And those little cake-things with a cherry on the top.
    9. 99.2% of the World’s people will get a year older.
    10. Sarah Palin will shoot a polar bear who will turn out to be the Vice President.

  40. Gary

    1. Republican majorities will have been elected to both houses of Congress on Nov. 6, 2012.

  41. Tom Bri

    RP. Mit Romney will win the presidency, by a margin greater than 53%/47%.

    RP Democrats will cry foul and contest elections in at least two states.

    RP Democrat staffers will once again trash the White House before leaving.

    RP The US and Iran will be at war before the election. Pres Obama will not seek congressional authorization.

    RP Iran will succeed in sinking a major US naval vessel, major being defined as larger than a frigate. In spite of this initial sucess, they will be plastered (define as pleased) in the ensuing air war.

    RP Under the weight of Fast and Furious, Eric Holder will leave office, to spend more time with his family.

    RP Ron Paul will fool around a long time (undetermined length, but long enough to make me feel weary), roiling the waters, but will NOT run a third party campaign.


  42. Schatzenberge

    1. RP – Romney
    2. RP – There will be at least one violent post-election riot.
    3. RP – Legislation will be introduced requiring all citizens to have a Facebook profile.
    4. RP – A newscaster on a major network will have an on-air melt-down.
    5. RP – Lebron James will blow out his knee in the 2012 NBA playoffs.
    6. RP – Never before in history will so many people know so little about so much.
    7. RP – Vladimir Putin will be shirtless in at least one photo op.
    8. RP – Last surviving veteran of WWI will pass.
    9. RP – E. Coli outbreak at Taco Bell.
    10. RP – The rich will get richer.

  43. David

    Obama will win.
    I will loose.

  44. SM

    Obama will win because he is the most attractive option… in all senses of the word.

    mct — lol @ ur comment about apple’s “ithings” haha.

  45. Joy

    1. The new president of the US will NOT be Obama,

    2. Romney will win.

    3. England will win Euro 2012.

    4. Euro fail slowly. At least one country will start to produce their old currency again.

    5. Anti European sentiment will continue in Britain.

    6. Scotland will not chose independence from the United Kingdom.

    7. Apple will have it’s least successful year since the I-Pod and.

    8. £ will reach at least £1.9 to $1.

    9. There will not be a Higgs, a Briggs or any other kind of Boson discovered but there will be further claims that they are even closer.

    10. Man U will win the Champions league.

    11. Britain will reach top five in the medal tables in London 2012.

    12. Briggs will take his Christmas decorations down.

    So there!

  46. Doug M

    required element — Romney is the elected president on 11/8.
    the Rest of the election…
    Pre-election polling runs “too close to call” right up to election day.
    Repbublicans gain seats in the Senate, hold the majority
    Republicans lose seast in the house, still hold the majority.
    Democrats elect new leadership in Congress.

    Rest of the world … There will be much talk of overt action agains Iran regarding Nukes, nothing significant happens.

    Euro crisis again erupts again. Still, no one is willing to face that there is too much debt. Refferenda for fiscal consolodation fail. Threats to disolve the euro, but eurozone ends the year intact.

    My swing for the fences…China hard landing. Chinese economy goes into recession and drags much of the world with it. There will be some sort of mass demonstration in China as economy freys.

  47. Joy

    8. $1.9 to £1. is what I meant.

  48. 1-Only Ron Paul and Romney compete after Florida primary;
    2-Ron Paul stays in GOP primaries to bitter end to gain delegates for convention;
    3-Paul delegates extract minor concessions in platform… which is of course mostly meaningless;
    4-LA gov. Bobby Jindhal chosen as Romney running mate;
    5-Romney wins presidency;
    6-Isolated and sporadic racial violence ensues;
    7-Isolated and sporadic racial violence largely ignored by MSM, where it isn’t ignored it is explained away by the usual suspects;
    8-Following Europe, Q2 results (possibly by later revision downward) US slides back into recession even by official (i.e., gov’t-ginned up) statistics;
    9-Dow and S&P end year lower than 10,000 and 1000 respectively;
    10-Euro reaches 1:1 parity with US dollar some time during year (before falling further);

  49. revGDright

    SpaceEx will fail in their first attempt to dock the Dragon spacecraft with the ISS in February. They play it up as a partial success, though.

    Condi Rice will be elected Vice-President.

  50. Briggs


    #12 has already come to pass. What foresight!

  51. Greg Cavanagh

    1. I know little about US presidency.
    2. England will flip over and sink beneath the sea due to the torque exerted by all the wind mills above.
    3. Scotland will be renamed New England. They will then send forth a fleet of wooden sailing ships to colonize the new world.
    4. A Vogon Destructor fleet will have been contacted to annihilate the earth because the humans have polluted their world, and the rest of the civilised universe doesn’t want us in their back yard messing up their worlds. The contract is displayed in a basement somewhere I think you’ll find.
    5. The general consensus among enlightened individuals is that the world will end in 1012. I’m going to go with the consensus on this one.
    6. A nuclear weapon will be detonated somewhere in the Middle East. (Not funny)

  52. Sera

    Obama will pick a new running mate.

  53. Rod

    Obama will be Obama and Romney will be not Obama.

    Oh… and Obama will still be President in 2013 unless he resigns, becomes incapacitated or commits a felony between now and then.

  54. RP: When we all wake up on 7 November 2012, who will be the newly elected President of the United States? Mitt Romney.

    RP: As measured by public polling, concern with “AGW” (Climate Change) will continue to fall in the U.S. and Britain. (e.g., Gallup’s annual environmental survey, coming this spring).

    RP: Official GDP growth in the U.S. will average below 2.5 % for Q1-3 (overall).

    RP: The war with Iran will not take place in calendar 2012. Obama will waver until the next President takes office. A serious bombing campaign will take place in 2013.

    NRP: Denver defeats Houston for AFC Championship! (More fun than what I think will really happen).

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