#### More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

#### Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

#### What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

#### Some Common Global Warming Fallacies

The level of debate on global warming is shriekingly poor. Not that I have any hope of convincing the world to reject bad logic, but here are some of the…

#### Precaution: Part IV—Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp

Read Part III. Science plays an interesting role in precautionary culture. Overall, science is looked at in our culture as a discerning field of advice in terms of numerous aspects…

#### Proving What You Want To Believe

You can always find a way to believe anything. That "always" is strict---the magic of belief, like a card trick with a gaffed deck, can always be worked. But just…

#### Happy 1000th Post!

This is it! The nine-hundred-ninety-ninth-plus-one post! The post whose number is a pleasing and large (relatively speaking) power of ten! The post that pushes us over the top of the…

#### Peer Review and Proof

Suppose that I today, below, in this post, prove to you a certain mathematics theorem, say, "The Symmetry of Individual Constants." Is that theorem true? Before you answer, consider that…