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Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
Posted inStatistics

Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods

P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. "P-values have some good uses." No, they don't. I used every as in every. "P-values…
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Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves

All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus,…
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Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…
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Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Posted inStatistics

Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive

Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn't Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God.…
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Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks
Posted inStatistics

Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks

I stole today's title from David Papineau's essay "Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science", which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early…
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There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
Posted inClass Statistics

There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either

I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…
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Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?
Posted inStatistics

Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?

Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email.…
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  1. Neil Upton on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 10, 2025

    some time ago it was said that to ensure a research grant the proposal should make reference to global boiling.…

  2. Uncle Mike on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025

    The Climate Catastrophe paradigm is dead. RIP. The old adherents are howling at the moon, but Science has moved on.…

  3. Cloudbuster on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025

    "New York and Ohio, which are cool" Please explain to my sweat glands how Ohio is cool so I shouldn't…

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    There is a significant correlation between golf and the wearing of ugly pants.

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    Yeah, the second I heard "Olmstead County" my mind went to the Mayo Clinic too. Both the Mayo Clinic proper…

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