Posted inStatistics
Bayesian Statistics Ruled Illegal?
Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled "IPCC statistics ruled illegal" in which he said, "Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayesian Probability Is Not Subjective (It Only Seems Like It Is)
Logic Start with standard logic; think syllogisms. This is not a trick question: Is it true or false that C = "George wears a hat"? There is no way to…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayesian Probability & Swinburne’s P-Inductive & C-Inductive Arguments (For God’s Existence)
Because I am jet-lagged (and fundamentally lazy) here is a classic post, modified to include a homework assignment. Don't be like me: do the work. This post contains some fundamental…
Posted inStatistics
Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics
There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
The Great Bayesian Switch
Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Group Differences: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference
Read the first entry in this series. All of what follows will appear ridiculously obvious to those who have had no statistical training. Those who have must struggle. In a…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference
Update This post is mandatory reading for those discussing global average temperature. I mean it: exceedingly brief and given only with respect to a univariate time series, such as operationally…
Posted inStatistics
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
The FDA should have gone probability. But they came close. They went Bayes. So announced FDA boss Marty Makar last week. Here's the document "Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical…