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Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
Posted inStatistics

Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods

P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. "P-values have some good uses." No, they don't. I used every as in every. "P-values…
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Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves

All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus,…
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Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…
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Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Posted inStatistics

Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive

Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn't Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God.…
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Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks
Posted inStatistics

Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks

I stole today's title from David Papineau's essay "Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science", which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early…
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There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
Posted inClass Statistics

There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either

I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…
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Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?
Posted inStatistics

Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?

Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email.…
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  1. Briggs on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 17, 2025

    Scott, One of my hobbies is mentalism, mental magic---I even performed a trick on a Vegas stage! I have lots…

  2. James on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 16, 2025

    The Aquatic Ape Hypothesis might be worthy of exploring for bad science: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquatic_ape_hypothesis

  3. Scott Locklin on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 16, 2025

    There was a book on the correspondence between Jung and Wolfgang Pauli (who was a genius, but also an alcoholic…

  4. Ralph Mertesdorf on Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study FindsJuly 16, 2025

    I found another headline at that "Study Finds" site" "Many Texas Communities Are Dangerously Unprepared For Floods, And Lack Of…

  5. Tars Tarkas on Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study FindsJuly 16, 2025

    "39. She always wants to be the one who makes the decisions. She likes to be the leader." This is…

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