Posted inStatistics
Curse of The MINIMAX!
Make a list of things that might happen. Label this list X_1, X_2, X_3, ..., X_p, where "p" is for possibility. Each of these X_i is a thing that can…
Posted inStatistics
On Over-Certainty In GMO Beliefs
Only a minor point about GMOs today. Here's how the Ars Technica "On GMO safety, the fiercest opponents understand the least" opens: "Science is our most effective means of understanding…
Posted inStatistics
Middle Ground Between Precautionary Principle & Inaction
From reader (and listener!) Phil Pilkington (there asterisks are original): Hi Matt, Loved your speech. Hyperskeptical Economist that I am, M Taleb did us some great favours in outlining the…
Posted inStatistics
DDP: Quack Cures For What Doesn’t Ail Us, Part I
I'm at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in No-History City, Louisiana. Here's Part I of (an earlier draft of) the speech I gave Saturday. Consider donating $1 for every…
Posted inClass Philosophy Statistics
Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part I: I Say Probability Does Not Exist
Ye Olde Statistician points us to an essay (a book chapter?) by our old pal Nassim Nicholas Taleb called "The Logic of Risk Taking". Let's examine it. You, dear reader,…
Posted inClass Statistics
Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That
Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…
Posted inStatistics
Possibility Versus Probability & Decision
Philip Pilkington, author of the buyable The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory, asks a follow-up question to the material on the precautionary principle. If probability…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More Reasons Not To Use The Precautionary Principle: Update
All probability is conditional and we are always interested in some proposition, call it X. We want to know "the probability of X". Well, there is none: not ever. There…
